Trump Wants a Do-Over in Europe
President Donald Trump hope that Europe will give him a second chance.
This week he travels to Poland at the invitation of his president and participates in a regional infrastructure summit and Hamburg, Germany, for the G-20 summit.
The trip offers the opportunity for redemption after a disastrous visit to Brussels in June, which came out of the NATO alliance hanging by a thread because of its refusal to approve Article 5 NATO mutual defense clause.
The G-20 are generally sleep problems, especially in recent years, but this time it is full of geopolitical intrigue.
The trip is ambitious and difficult. I spoke with six service officials, all outside record, and 10 recent senior officials and experts from the United States, Europe and Asia to this article.
The majority view is that travel is a delicate balance between success and failure, with the result that it largely depends upon President Trump listening to senior advisers or getting involved in his nationalist and American impulses. The risks can be divided into three baskets: the visit to Poland, meets Trump Putin and the G-20 summit.
At a glance, Poland Trump offers an opportunity to repair the damage to the visit to Brussels, demonstrating its commitment to the security of Eastern Europe.
Trump is also likely to be positively received in Warsaw, which should be a useful counterpoint to what are likely to be mass public demonstrations in Hamburg. He could have gone to the Baltic, who are terrified by the belligerence of Russia and desperate for more help from the United States, but could be viewed negatively by Vladimir Poutine. He could have gone to Romania, but his president recently visited the White House. Thus, Poland. However, this is not why the Polish government thinks Trump is going to Warsaw.
Trump has chosen Poland, the Poles believe, because he is ideologically aligned with his ultra conservative Law and Justice party government, which is being burned in Europe to erode the rule of law and by its hostility to multiculturalism and liberal values. Jeremy Shapiro, former Obama White House official, research director
The European Council on Foreign Relations and spoke with representatives and Polish experts in recent weeks said that Polish officials think of visiting Trump as a “vote of confidence” and “an opportunity to create a special bilateral relationship with the administration.”
Poles also believe that Trump made a great strategic move to throw their weight behind them Tres Mares initiative, which includes twelve countries from Central and Eastern Europe to the Adriatic Sea, Black Sea and the Baltic Sea to develop a regional infrastructure to reduce their Energy dependence of Russia.
The initiative, created a year ago by Poland and Croatia in Dubrovnik, met in Warsaw to discuss the reality of that ambition. In particular the hope that the Warsaw Summit will see an agreement with Trump for the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) that could harm Nordstream 2, the transport of German-Russian energy that has been divided especially Europe.
Neighboring Poland see another dimension in the Three Seas. A former German official said that Poland is trying to revive an old Polish aircraft from World War II, it is known that Intermarum, which Poland will try to unite to central and eastern Europe, under the leadership of Poland and the German leaders counterweight to the west And Russia to the east.
A former German German official told me that for Germany, “what happens in Warsaw is at least as interesting as what happens at the G-20 in Poland.”
German and French officials fear that Trump can not take advantage of the visit to obtain a “new” and “old” Europe, repeating the strategy followed by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld during the course of the 2003 Iraq war.